What Impact Could the Iran-Israel War Have on Africa? A Crisis Beyond the Middle East - By Lena Sene, President of DCA Africa

As tensions between Iran and Israel reach unprecedented levels, the world is facing a geopolitical crisis whose repercussions could extend far beyond the borders of the Middle East — with Africa among the most vulnerable regions. Analyses that downplay the impact of this conflict on the African continent often overlook key strategic and economic realities.

If the conflict escalates into a direct confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States, one of the most concerning scenarios would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial maritime passage through which nearly 20% of global oil trade transits. In such a case, not only Iran but also major oil exporters in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, would be unable to export their oil. This could push the price of oil beyond $200 per barrel.

Many African countries — as net importers of energy and petroleum products — would be among the hardest hit. Unlike Europe or China, most African states do not have strategic reserves of oil or gas. This means they could only endure a supply disruption for a few weeks.

Moreover, the structural inflation already affecting many African economies would worsen dramatically. Even today, the prices of food, fuel, and medicines have already exceeded tolerance thresholds in several countries. A new energy shock could lead to economic collapse, political instability, mass protests, or even internal unrest in fragile states like Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Mali, or Niger.

"On the diplomatic front, African governments find themselves in a delicate position."

Israel has attempted to rebuild its ties with the continent over the past decade, but its public image remains negative, particularly in Muslim-majority or Sunni countries. Iran, for its part, maintains few structured relations with Africa, but it could capitalise on the current situation by leveraging anti-colonial and anti-Western narratives, thus gaining ideological influence and soft power, particularly in countries like Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Rwanda, South Africa, and others.

In summary, this is not an isolated regional conflict. Africa, due to its economic vulnerabilities, import dependence, and the fragility of some political regimes, risks becoming one of the first collateral victims of a Middle East escalation.

It is therefore essential that international institutions — including the African Union — and African governments proactively begin planning — economically, diplomatically, and socially — to mitigate the impact of this crisis and protect African populations from the devastating side effects of a distant war with far-reaching consequences.

June 24, 2025

By Lena Sene

Presdient and CEO of DCA Africa